As prepared as we can be. The UKMET model’s 0Z Monday forecast predicted a landfall southwest of Houston, Texas, around 8 p.m. EDT Wednesday as an intensifying hurricane. Trump, Joe Biden in dead heat in Georgia, NewsNation/Emerson poll shows, Commission to mute microphones in next presidential debate, Madison County Coroner reports overdose death numbers stabilizing, Stimulus update: Pelosi, Mnuchin ‘narrow differences’ ahead of House speaker’s Tuesday deadline, Listen: President Trump calls Fauci a ‘disaster’ and seeks to reassure his team he can win, DOJ accuses 6 Russian intelligence officers of vast computer hacking, Alabama health officials preparing for COVID-19 vaccine, but major questions remain, Woman charged with manslaughter and DUI in fatal September wreck, Decatur police looking for SUV that hit motorcycle, injuring two people, Huntsville law firm giving away 20 gift cards to help families in need. (Weather Bell). In 2006, the ECMWF made improvements that resulted in accurate hurricane forecasting. Thank you so much for keeping us posted! My Future Radar is also useful for tracking storms that may hit the mainland United States. When shown together, the individual model tracks can somewhat resemble strands of spaghetti. The 10 pm CT official track from the National Hurricane Center shows landfall just right of “Scenario Two.”. In short, it gives you a way to see where a tropical storm or hurricane may head. The graphics above show the barometric pressure field. This time of year, when we get a shot of chilly air, it’s important to savor the moments because that cool air quickly warms up in a short amount of time! (Weather Bell). We hope to have better answers for you tomorrow on all of this, when we’re going to reach the point when final decisions on evacuation and other preparation activities will need to be made for the metro area. This would necessitate coastal evacuations and lead to widespread power outages, among other problems. European model depiction of Laura at 4am CT Wednesday. They say it’s the least likely scenario, but cite several repeated predictions. Laura will arrive in three days or less, Houston should prepare now for possible impacts, Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window), Click to share on Reddit (Opens in new window), Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window), Laura now grazing Cuba, set to threaten Texas and Louisiana by mid-week, Looking ahead to Houston’s winter: Likely drier, warmer than normal, Houston weather returns to autumn — for now, A reasonably strong front will push into Houston this evening, Much of Houston has seen no rainfall since Tropical Storm Beta, A weak front has pushed into Houston, a stronger one comes Friday. I’m tired but doing something has its benefits. Enter your email address to receive notifications of new posts by email. The closer the lines are to each other, the stronger the winds. Hope so, reading this in N. Padre Island. The warm gulf and the lack of shear keeps Laura dangerous this week. Good evening. I’ve told my mother that she should know this routine down cold since she’s lived here for over 50 years. I’d like to welcome our new readers to the site—whether you found us through a friend or family member, Google, Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, or of course our MySpace page. Yes they lock their privates and don’t contribute to society. The best-performing model for Laura so far has been the UKMET model, which has out-performed all other models and the official NHC forecast, except for those at 12-hour forecasts. For this reason we can’t entirely discount it. The EURO hasn’t done well this year with the other storms. The system will likely be a hurricane near Bermuda this weekend. © 1998 - 2020 Nexstar Inc. | All Rights Reserved. Evacuate immediately if so ordered. The white lines are isobars (lines of equal pressure). SUBSCRIBE NOW Only $5 for 3 months. Why would I want to view spaghetti models? The model is run twice a day at 0z and 12z. The accuracy drops significantly after day five, and significant long-range forecast changes are … Hurricane cone of uncertainty doesn't mean what many people think it means. For official path information, as well as land hazards and other data: View the LAURA storm track page » To view spaghetti models for all active hurricanes, cyclones, … This would, of course, be a bad storm for Beaumont and southwestern Louisiana. Store. Thus, different models produce different final results. Houston would see almost no significant impacts from such a scenario, but it could cause significant surges or flooding in New Orleans, Mississippi and Alabama. It could be a major hurricane by the time it reaches the Texas/Louisiana coastline later this week. Keep in mind the cone only covers 2/3 of the historic error range. This would push Laura more westward, toward Texas. Earthquake. We’ve been through Hurricane Alicia, TS Allison, Hurricanes Ike, and Harvey. Several models bring Laura to major hurricane status in 36 hours. To view spaghetti models for all active hurricanes, cyclones, and typhoons, visit the main spaghetti models page. The strength of the southeastern ridge, shown above, will determine Laura’s track. We did the same this weekend. (Weather Bell) For the last two runs the deterministic output from the European model has more or less depicted this third scenario, along with the Canadian model.

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