With a personal account, you can read up to 100 articles each month for free. It publishes over 2,500 books a year for distribution in more than 200 countries. Here’s a useful table of correlations from the Appendix: And here’s one showing that the current negative stock-bond correlation is not typical: This is why Treasuries don’t work as a stock diversifier over a 100-year time scale. PremiumBondWinners.com is not associated with N S & I in any way and only publishs these results for informational prurposes only. Never forget there is a form of peace and stability reinforced by a foundation of underlying volatility. Modern financial markets are a game of impossible objects. Left alone, the serpent will constantly devour its own tail and simultaneously regenerate (this is known as Ouroboros). Like a snake blind to the fact it is devouring its own body, the same factors that appear stabilizing can reverse into chaos. It’s on my list – once the gardening season is over I’ll get around to it. The podcast page included links to several papers from Christopher, and this one was most relevant to the topics discussed in the podcast. The multi-trillion-dollar short volatility trade, broadly defined in all its forms, can play a similar role today if inflation forces central banks to raise rates into any financial stress. Traditionally diversified portfolios (including my own) are mostly long-growth, with a modest allocation to crash protection in order to reduce volatility and increase the Sharpe ratio. Hawk and Serpent are hidden in plain sight on the Great Seal of the United States of America, the Coat of Arms of Mexico. Your email address will not be published. Which means that many of the portfolios use. by Vil » Thu Feb 13, 2020 8:55 am, Post Print too little money and we cascade off the waterfall like the Great Depression of the 1930s... print too much and we burn like the Weimar Republic Germany in the 1920s... fail to harness the trade winds and we sink like Japan in the 1990s. There is no such thing as control… there are only probabilities. Navigating the channel is treacherous for to err too far to one side and your ship plunges off the waterfall of deflation but too close to the other and it burns in the hellfire of inflation. Long vol would have been great this week! option. This Serpent = good, Hawk = bad system seems the reverse of the mythical interpretation [. I get a blank look when I say it's not about us or the kids, it's about the kids kids and the kids kids kids that I'm investing for. The underlying idea of the allegory is a conflict of opposites – the Hawk is the enlightened mind and the Serpent is the “lower self”. All Rights Reserved. To listen to the article click here. Market behavior has now fully adapted to the expectation of pre-emptive central bank action to crisis creating a dangerous self-reflexivity and moral hazard. and have roots in Greek, Egyptian, Indian, and Aztec mythology. Opens in a new window, The following is an excerpt from the research article "Volatility at World’s End: Deflation, Hyperinflation and the Alchemy of Risk" from Artemis Capital Management LLC. Serpent assets (Stocks, Real Estate, Corporate Bonds) benefit from secular growth and stability. by pugchief » Wed Feb 26, 2020 6:24 am, Post In the investment context, the serpent represents the secular growth cycle (rising asset prices followed by fiat devaluation and debt expansion) and the Hawk’s wings represent the forces of destruction.
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